Statisticians and Seats

I know this is an old article but it nonetheless the case of Nate Silver provides an interesting example for the power of statistics when applied to predict real world outcomes so some extent.

Bob O’Hara from the Guardian postulates on the approach taken:

It’s also worth noting that although we are ultimately interested in how people will vote on election day, the data we get is based on how people think they will vote at the time they are asked, which may be months before the election. What people think changes over time, so this variable has to be incorporated into this model. This means we have to include a temporal component: in short, we must generate a time series.


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